Defence modernisation needs to consider the full spectrum of threats and not just the visible ones. As nations increase their defence spending, there is a danger that one of the least understood threats is being overlooked entirely. The biological threat is real, and European defence is not adequately prepared for it.
The threat has fundamentally changed
There’s an assumption embedded in Europe's rearmament conversation that the threat from Russia is primarily conventional, and that tanks and missiles are therefore the answer. The conflict in Ukraine has, however, exposed the limits of Russia's conventional forces in ways that few anticipated. But that exposure does not make Europe safer, it makes it more vulnerable to something far harder to defend against.
Between conventional warfare and nuclear strikes sits a space that biological and chemical weapons occupy with increasing relevance. Russia has both the capability and, critically, the demonstrated willingness to disregard international norms. The use of Novichok nerve agent on the streets of Salisbury, for example, was not an act of war in the conventional sense, it was a statement of intent: Russia will use unconventional tools to achieve its objectives, and international conventions will not hold them back.
A convergence that changes everything
The most dramatic change in recent years, however, is not state capability, it is the lifting barrier to entry for everyone else.
Bio-convergence, the integration of synthetic biology, bioinformatics, advanced manufacturing techniques, and artificial intelligence, presents a theoretically infinite number of biological threats with tailorable capabilities. Large language models and generative AI tools have made that knowledge accessible to almost anyone. The result is that biological weapons are now within reach of once state-sponsored proxies or lone actors who would previously have lacked the scientific expertise to develop them. AI systems can generate viable information on pathogen design, production and delivery at alarming speed. Unmonitored laboratories are already a documented phenomenon. In regions with lower state oversight and transient borders, the barrier is lower still.
Additionally, the fear that biological threats generate is a weapon in itself. Recent months have seen Ebola outbreaks in Africa and Hantavirus spreading on board a cruise ship – both making attention grabbing international headlines. These are naturally occurring events, yet the public reaction they provoke is instructive. A deliberate biological release, even of a less lethal agent, carries enormous potential for disruption, panic and the erosion of public confidence. For adversaries seeking to destabilise rather than destroy, that combination of invisibility and fear is uniquely powerful.
Why detection is the foundation of deterrence
The critical insight that drives biological defence is one of time. Unlike a missile strike, a biological weapon does not announce itself. Exposure can occur silently, in environments that appear entirely normal, with no immediate symptoms. The window between exposure and harm, to individuals, to units, to critical facilities, may be hours or days. That window is everything.
Dispersion modelling conducted by US researchers found that biological agents introduced into high-traffic transit environments spread far beyond initial projections. Consider for example, a biological agent being introduced at a major European transport hub, a busy international airport, a port of entry, a railway interchange. By the time exposure is confirmed, the agent has moved across borders and into cities.
But there is a deeper strategic dimension that is rarely discussed: deterrence itself depends on detection. The logic of deterrence breaks down when attribution is impossible. A biological incident may not even be recognised as an attack, and without detection at the point of release, it may never be. Detection is therefore not just a protective measure, it is the foundation of everything that follows. It triggers the chain – something has happened, here, now. A sample is collected, the agent is forensically characterised and responsibility can be traced.
An adversary who knows that a biological release will be detected immediately, that attribution will follow and that a prepared response is already in place, has far less to gain from deploying biological weapons in the first place. There is no missile trail and no satellite image of a launch site, but with the right detection capability in place, there is something equally powerful – evidence.
Proven bioaerosol detection and collection technologies
Chemring Sensors and Electronic Systems (CSES) has spent years developing, testing and manufacturing biological detection systems specifically designed to address these threats. Operating across multiple domains, CSES detection systems provide real-time detection of aerosolised biological warfare agents, outperforming competitors by accurately distinguishing biological agents from background particles while generating far fewer false alarms. Paired with validated sample collection technologies, CSES’s systems are able to detect a biological aerosol, document the time and location of the alert, and collect a robust sample for further characterisation. That precision matters as faster, more reliable detection enables faster decision making, and in a biological incident, every minute counts.
All CSES systems have completed extensive verification and validation with the US military, including operational, performance, environmental and human factors testing to ensure effectiveness anywhere in the world, in any conditions. They are already deployed and trusted across air, land and maritime domains. They are interoperable and easily integrated into existing vehicles, vessels and defence infrastructure. The technology does not need to be developed. It does not need to be proven. It is ready.
The threat landscape is broad, and no single product addresses every vector. But CSES's range of detection systems, from highly portable front-line detectors to high-sensitivity platforms protecting critical fixed assets, means that the biological domain can be covered across the full spectrum of operational environments. The same core technology that protects military forces can equally protect civilian infrastructure, transport hubs, government buildings and public spaces. Modernising for modern conflict means thinking about all of it.
The question for European NATO defence planners is not whether to address the biological threat. The question is whether Europe acts before a crisis forces the decision.
It is not a matter of if. It is when.
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Chemring Sensors and Electronic Systems (CSES) develops and manufactures biological detection systems for military and security customers worldwide. CSES will be demonstrating its detection capabilities at Eurosatory 2026, Stand D345, Hall 5A. Arrange a meeting: chemring.com/media/events/eurosatory-26